The Rise of Texas

Back in July 2022, I published the “Projected 2050 Population & Political Power Series” analyzing population and political power trendlines and projecting what America would look like in 2050. The results represented pre-pandemic trends. The pandemic accelerated what I projected…though that acceleration will be reversed should Joe Biden’s and the Left’s goal to repopulate Blue states with illegal immigrants for census and voting purposes succeeds. At any rate, some of the core findings of that series were that, by 2050, Texas would match California in both population and political power due to the former’s massive boom and the latter’s stagnation.

Specifically, while California’s population would slowly rise to just under fifty-two million, Texas’s population would explode to just over fifty-one million. The next closest state, Florida, will be fifteen million votes behind California and Texas. From an Electoral College standpoint, California’s Electoral College pool will shrink from fifty-four votes to fifty-one votes, while Texas’s Electoral Votes will explode from thirty-two votes to fifty-one votes. Again, Florida will sit in third place with thirty-seven Electoral Votes. California and Texas respectfully will represent the power bases of the Blue versus Red state divide.

The rise of Texas isn’t just due to population and political power. As of 2023, Texas has become the top state for Fortune 500 companies with fifty-five. If not for the continual birth of public companies out of Silicon Valley, Texas would have eclipsed California as the top state for corporations years ago. In 2021, sixty-two companies relocated to Texas from other states. Tesla, of course, is the most famous Fortune 500 transplant. The Greater Houston Area has the second most (twenty-five) Fortune 500 companies, with the Greater Dallas Area in third place (twenty-four) and rising rapidly. Houston and Dallas each now have more Fortune 500 companies than all of Ohio.

While New York City still dominates the Fortune 500 list due to the presence of Wall Street, that dominance may be about to fall. In news from Friday, the TXSE Group announced raising $120 million to launch a new electronic trading system called the Texas Stock Exchange. With the rise of the woke requiring things like diversity, inclusion, and equity policies, including mandated United Colors of Benetton ad-like boards of directors, many companies will welcome a stock exchange firmly focused on profits and increasing shareholder value instead of bean-counting board members according to the latest progressive views.

The lawfare attack on Donald Trump by overtly political and biased Alvin Bragg, Juan Merchan, and a crazy left New York City jury will only incentivize companies to think long and hard about whether remaining in New York City is best for their companies, workers, customers, and shareholders. If they could rig a case to take down Trump, how hard would it be to do the same to a Chief Executive Officer or Board of Directors should they step out-of-line politically? Obviously, not hard at all. No one should be surprised if the exodus from New York City to Texas (or other states) grows in the coming years, especially if Trump secures the White House at the end of this year and the progressive left riots as expected.

For years, Ohio’s political leaders have bragged about two items. First, every year, our secretaries of State note that business filings have set a new record. Secondly, our governors cite Ohio’s usually high Site Selection ranking as proof that all is well in Ohio. My response to the first item is “where are the jobs to go with those annual business filings records?” Ohio’s private sector has been largely stagnant for years, so the business filings are not resulting in many jobs. The reality is the business filings likely just represent people starting LLCs in order to take advantage of the tax benefits of being a 1099 employer/employee versus a W2 employee.

On the Site Selection ranking, that ranking was created back in the 1990s with heavy influence by the Voinovich Administration. The Voinovich people pushed items that would artificially give Ohio a boost in the ranking. Plus, only two-thirds of the states actually participate in that ranking. Regardless, as with the business filings records, one must ask where are the jobs to go with the high Site Selection ranking?

The simple fact is Ohio just cannot compete with Texas based on the hard facts of corporate headquarters, net job growth, surging population, and increasing political power. On those four measures, Ohio is a dead state walking. If we want to change that, we must enact the policies that are making Texas shine. Unfortunately, there is no political will among Ohio’s political leaders like Jon Husted and Matt Huffman. Thus, as surely as Texas will remain a bright light among the states, Ohio’s light will grow dimmer.

For those who missed it, listen to my latest interview on The Bruce Hooley Show when we discussed D-Day and America’s will to fight today, Hunter Biden’s trial, and the important of calling Republican spades spades.